The scariest Halloween reality for House Democrats is the number of seats President Biden carried comfortably in 2020 that are at genuine risk a week out. And if you’re looking for House upsets, the best places to watch might be blue states where there’s no competitive statewide races driving turnout, Democratic governors are underperforming and GOP candidates have been able to seize on high crime and inflation.
“I’ve never seen an election where the signs are this divergent and…lumpy,” said one veteran Democratic strategist familiar with polling in a wide array of races. “It’s less nationalized than we’re accustomed to, and there’s more weakness in the blue end of the battlefield,” the strategist said, pointing to late-emerging problems in California and New York districts that Donald Trump lost by between 14 and 20 points.
This week, we’re moving ten seats in the GOP’s direction – all in very blue states and all in districts Biden carried by between eight and 20 points in 2020. Three are open seats where the lack of an incumbent has allowed the GOP to remain