As Tropical Depression Lisa continues to weaken after making landfall in Belize, the National Hurricane Center is keeping a close watch on two tropical waves that could bring windy conditions and heavy rain to Florida and the southeastern U.S.
Both tropical waves currently have a low chance for development, but forecasters said environmental conditions could support tropical or subtropical development.
A broad area of slowly spinning low pressure, known as a gyre, will form in an area between Bermuda, the northern Caribbean and the southeastern U.S., according to AccuWeather.
As winds pick up in the region, seas and surf will build and pockets of showers and thunderstorms will develop.
Add to that an area of high pressure to the north and a full moon that boosts astronomical tides, and coastal states from the mid-Atlantic into New England could see erosion and coastal flooding, according to AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Adam Douty.
Chances for the development of a storm east of Florida next week are increasing and that system could be a tropical or subtropical system, AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski said.
The next named storm will be Nicole.
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A storm could develop anywhere from Bermuda to the Caribbean to Florida and even in the eastern part of the Gulf of Mexico, according to AccuWeather, although there is a slightly greater chance will could form somewhere between the Bahamas and the Carolina coast.
Another scenario could bring drenching rain that moves toward Florida then spreads north along the Eastern Seaboard next week.
Elsewhere, Tropical Depression Lisa has moved into the Bay of Campeche. It’s possible Lisa could strengthen over the next 24 hours before weakening into a remnant low by Sunday.
Here’s the latest update from the NHC as of 5 a.m. Nov. 4:
Tropical Depression Lisa
Location: 145 miles west of Ciudad Del Carmen, Mexico; 938 miles southwest of Naples
- Maximum wind speed: 30 mph
- Direction: west-northwest at 10 mph
At 5 a.m., the center of Tropical Depression Lisa was located 145 miles west of Ciudad Del Carmen, Mexico.
The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph. A turn toward the northwest with a decrease in forward speed is expected later today and tonight, and the depression is forecast to become nearly stationary and meander on Saturday and Saturday night.
On the forecast track, the center of Lisa will move away from the coast of Mexico today.
Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph, with higher gusts. Slight strengthening is possible during the next 24 hours. After that, Lisa is forecast to weaken and to degenerate into a remnant low pressure area by Sunday.
What’s out there and where are they?
Tropical wave 1: A weak non-tropical area of low pressure located several hundred miles east-southeast of Bermuda continues to produce an area of showers and thunderstorms, mostly well to the east of its center.
Tropical wave 2: A large non-tropical low pressure system is expected to develop across the northeastern Caribbean Sea and southwestern Atlantic during the next day or two.
How likely are they to strengthen?
Tropical wave 1: Any tropical or subtropical development of this disturbance should be slow to occur during the next day or so while it moves little through today and then turns westward over the weekend.
The system is forecast to interact with a larger low pressure area developing to its southwest and will encounter stronger upper level winds on Saturday, so further development is not anticipated beyond that time.
- Formation chance through 48 hours: low, 10 percent.
- Formation chance through 5 days: low, 10percent.
Tropical wave 2: The system is initially expected be very broad and disorganized, but it could begin to acquire subtropical or tropical characteristics by the end of the weekend.
Environmental conditions could support additional gradual development early next week and a subtropical or tropical depression could form while the disturbance moves generally northwest or west over the southwestern Atlantic.
- Formation chance through 48 hours: low, near 0 percent.
- Formation chance through 5 days: medium, 40 percent.
Who is likely to be impacted?
Tropical wave 2: This system could bring very windy and rainy weather to Florida Monday through late next week. Strong winds may lead to an increased risk for rip currents and beach erosion, while several inches of rain could cause local and coastal flooding.
Forecasters urge all residents to continue monitoring the tropics and to always be prepared.
When is the Atlantic hurricane season?
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
When is the peak of hurricane season?
Although the season has gotten off to a quiet start, the peak of the season is Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center.
Weather watches and warnings issued for your area
Tropical forecast over next five days
See the National Hurricane Center’s five-day graphical tropical weather outlook below.
Excessive rainfall forecast
What’s out there?
Systems currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center.
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